Cost-effectiveness of Improved WIC Food Package for Preventing Childhood Obesity.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) prevents food insecurity and supports nutrition for more than 3 million low-income young children. Our objectives were to determine the cost-effectiveness of changes to WIC's nutrition standards in 2009 for preventing obesity and to estimate impacts on socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequities. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to estimate impacts from 2010 through 2019 of the 2009 WIC food package change on obesity risk for children aged 2 to 4 years participating in WIC. Microsimulation models estimated the cases of obesity prevented in 2019 and costs per quality-adjusted-life year gained. RESULTS: An estimated 14.0 million 2- to 4-year old US children (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 13.7-14.2 million) were reached by the updated WIC nutrition standards from 2010 through 2019. In 2019, an estimated 62 700 (95% UI, 53 900-71 100) cases of childhood obesity were prevented, entirely among children from households with low incomes, leading to improved health equity. The update was estimated to cost $10 600 per quality-adjusted-life year gained (95% UI, $9760-$11 700). If WIC had reached all eligible children, more than twice as many cases of childhood obesity would have been prevented. CONCLUSIONS: Updates to WIC's nutrition standards for young children in 2009 were estimated to be highly cost-effective for preventing childhood obesity and contributed to reducing socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequities in obesity prevalence. Improving nutrition policies for young children can be a sound public health investment; future research should explore how to improve access to them.

Cost Effectiveness of Calorie Labeling at Large Fast-Food Chains Across the U.S.

INTRODUCTION: Calorie labeling of standard menu items has been implemented at large restaurant chains across the U.S. since 2018. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of calorie labeling at large U.S. fast-food chains. METHODS: This study evaluated the national implementation of calorie labeling at large fast-food chains from a modified societal perspective and projected its cost effectiveness over a 10-year period (2018-2027) using the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study microsimulation model. Using evidence from over 67 million fast-food restaurant transactions between 2015 and 2019, the impact of calorie labeling on calorie consumption and obesity incidence was projected. Benefits were estimated across all racial, ethnic, and income groups. Analyses were performed in 2022. RESULTS: Calorie labeling is estimated to be cost saving; prevent 550,000 cases of obesity in 2027 alone (95% uncertainty interval=518,000; 586,000), including 41,500 (95% uncertainty interval=33,700; 50,800) cases of childhood obesity; and save $22.60 in healthcare costs for every $1 spent by society in implementation costs. Calorie labeling is also projected to prevent cases of obesity across all racial and ethnic groups (range between 126 and 185 cases per 100,000 people) and all income groups (range between 152 and 186 cases per 100,000 people). CONCLUSIONS: Calorie labeling at large fast-food chains is estimated to be a cost-saving intervention to improve long-term population health. Calorie labeling is a low-cost intervention that is already implemented across the U.S. in large chain restaurants.

A Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Excise Tax in California: Projected Benefits for Population Obesity and Health Equity.

INTRODUCTION: Amid the successes of local sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes, interest in state-wide policies has grown. This study evaluated the cost effectiveness of a hypothetical 2-cent-per-ounce excise tax in California and its implications for population health and health equity. METHODS: Using the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study microsimulation model, tax impacts on health, health equity, and cost effectiveness over 10 years in California were projected, both overall and stratified by race/ethnicity and income. Expanding on previous models, differences in the effect of intake of SSBs on weight by BMI category were incorporated. Costing was performed in 2020, and analyses were conducted in 2021-2022. RESULTS: The tax is projected to save $4.55 billion in healthcare costs, prevent 266,000 obesity cases in 2032, and gain 114,000 quality-adjusted life years. Cost-effectiveness metrics, including cost/quality-adjusted life year gained, were cost saving. Spending on SSBs was projected to decrease by $33 per adult and $26 per child overall in the first year. Reductions in obesity prevalence for Black and Hispanic Californians were 1.8 times larger than for White Californians, and reductions for adults with lowest incomes (<130% Federal Poverty Level) were 1.4 times the reduction among those with highest incomes (>350% Federal Poverty Level). The tax is projected to save $112 in obesity-related healthcare costs per $1 invested. CONCLUSIONS: A state-wide SSB tax in California would be cost saving, lead to reductions in obesity and improvement in SSB-related health equity, and lead to overall improvements in population health. The policy would generate more than $1.6 billion in state tax revenue annually that can also be used to improve health equity.

Personalized versus generic digital weight loss interventions delivered on university campuses: a 6-month cost-benefit analysis.

Cost-effectiveness analyses of weight loss programs for university students can inform administrator decision-making. This study quantifies and compares the costs and cost-effectiveness of implementing two digitally-delivered weight loss interventions designed for university populations. Healthy Body Healthy U (HBHU) was a randomized controlled trial comparing TAILORED (personalized) versus TARGETED (generic) weight loss interventions adapted specifically for young adults to a CONTROL intervention. Participants (N = 459; 23.3 ± 4.4 years; mean BMI 31.2 ± 4.4 kg/m2) were recruited from two universities. Implementation costs were examined from a payer (i.e., university) perspective, comparing both the average cost effectiveness ratio (ACER) and the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the two interventions. Cost-effectiveness measures were calculated for changes in body weight, abdominal circumference, HDL cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and HbA1c. The overall 6-month implementation costs were $105.66 per person for the TAILORED intervention and $91.44 per person for the TARGETED intervention. The ACER for weight change was $107.82 for the TAILORED and $179.29 for the TARGETED interventions. The ICER comparing TAILORED with TARGETED for change in body weight was $5.05, and was even lower ($2.28) when including only those with overweight and not obesity. The ICERs for change in abdominal circumference, HDL cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and HbA1c were $3.49, $59.37, $1.57, $2.64, and $47.49, respectively. The TAILORED intervention was generally more cost-effective compared with the TARGETED intervention, particularly among those with overweight. Young adults with obesity may require more resource-intensive precision-based approaches.

Knowledge about the cost-effectiveness of weight loss programs for university students is needed to inform administrator decision-making regarding whether to provide such programming. This study examined the cost-effectiveness of two digitally-delivered weight loss interventions (i.e., TAILORED and TARGETED) designed for university students. The TAILORED intervention included information tailored to the individual, while the TARGETED intervention included only generic weight loss information. At 6 months, the average cost per kilogram of weight loss was $107.82 for TAILORED participants and $179.29 for TARGETED participants. The TAILORED intervention was generally more cost-effective compared with the TARGETED intervention.

The G-NORM Scale: Development and Validation of a Theory-Based Gender Norms Scale.

Gender norms are increasingly recognized as important modifiers of health. Despite growing awareness of how gender norms affect health behavior, current gender norms scales are often missing two important theoretical components: differentiating between descriptive and injunctive norms and adding a referent group. We used a mixed-methods approach to develop and validate a novel gender norms scale that includes both theoretical components. Based on qualitative data, the theory of normative social behavior, and the theory of gender and power, we generated a pool of 28 items. We included the items in a baseline questionnaire among 3,110 women in Odisha, India as part of a cluster randomized controlled trial. We then ran exploratory factor analysis which resulted in 18 items. Using a second wave of data with the same sample, we evaluated psychometric properties using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling. The analysis resulted in two subscales with nine items each, "descriptive gender norms" and "injunctive gender norms." Both subscales represent high internal validity with Cronbach's alpha values of 0.81 and 0.84 and the combined scale has an alpha of 0.87. The G-NORM, gender norms scale, improves on existing measures by providing distinct descriptive and injunctive norms subscales and moving beyond individual attitudes by assessing women's perceptions of community-level gender norms.

Cost-Effectiveness of 5 Public Health Approaches to Prevent Eating Disorders.

INTRODUCTION: Eating disorders cause suffering and a high risk of death. Accelerating the translation of research into implementation will require intervention cost-effectiveness estimates. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of 5 public health approaches to preventing eating disorders among adolescents and young adults. METHODS: Using data from 2001 to 2017, the authors developed a microsimulation model of a closed cohort starting at the age of 10 years and ending at 40 years. In 2021, an analysis was conducted of 5 primary and secondary prevention strategies for eating disorders: school-based screening, primary care‒based screening, school-based universal prevention, excise tax on over-the-counter diet pills, and restriction on youth purchase of over-the-counter diet pills. The authors estimated the reduction in years lived with eating disorders and the increase in quality-adjusted life-years. Intervention costs and net monetary benefit were estimated using a threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life year. RESULTS: All the 5 interventions were estimated to be cost-saving compared with the current practice. Discounted per person cost savings (over the 30-year analytic time horizon) ranged from $63 (clinic screening) to $1,102 (school-based universal prevention). Excluding caregiver costs for binge eating disorder and otherwise specified feeding and eating disorders substantially reduced cost savings (e.g., from $1,102 to $149 for the school-based intervention). CONCLUSIONS: A range of public health strategies to reduce the societal burden of eating disorders are likely cost saving. Universal prevention interventions that promote healthy nutrition, physical activity, and media use behaviors without introducing weight stigma may prevent additional negative health outcomes, such as excess weight gain.

Excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the USA by state and demographic subgroup: A modelling study.

Background: The obesity epidemic in the USA continues to grow nationwide. Although excess weight-related mortality has been studied in general, less is known about how it varies by demographic subgroup within the USA. In this study we estimated excess mortality associated with elevated body weight nationally and by state and subgroup. Methods: We developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from 6,002,012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System respondents. Prior probability distributions for hazard ratios relating body-mass index (BMI) to mortality were informed by a global pooling dataset. Individual-level mortality risks were modelled accounting for demographics, smoking history, and BMI adjusted for self-report bias. We calibrated the model to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and assessed the predictive accuracy of the model using a random sample of data withheld from model fitting. We simulated counterfactual scenarios to estimate excess mortality attributable to different levels of excess weight and smoking history. Findings: We estimated that excess weight was responsible for more than 1300 excess deaths per day (nearly 500,000 per year) and a loss in life expectancy of nearly 2·4 years in 2016, contributing to higher excess mortality than smoking. Relative excess mortality rates were nearly twice as high for women compared to men in 2016 (21·9% vs 13·9%), and were higher for Black non-Hispanic adults. By state, overall excess weight-related life expectancy loss ranged from 1·75 years (95% UI 1·57-1·94) in Colorado to 3·18 years (95% UI 2·86-3·51) in Mississippi. Interpretation: Excess weight has substantial impacts on mortality in the USA, with large disparities by state and subgroup. Premature mortality will likely increase as obesity continues to rise. Funding: The JPB Foundation, NIH, CDC.

Effectiveness and Cost-Benefit of an Elementary School-Based Telehealth Program.

Utilization of telehealth in school-based health centers (SBHCs) is increasing rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study used a quasi-experimental design to evaluate the effect on school absences and cost-benefit of telehealth-exclusive SBHCs at 6 elementary schools from 2015-2017. The effect of telehealth on absences was estimated compared to students without telehealth using negative binomial regression controlling for absences and health suite visits in 2014 and sociodemographic characteristics. The sample included 7,164 observations from 4,203 students. Telehealth was associated with a 7.7% (p = 0.025; 95% CI: 1.0%, 14%) reduction in absences (0.60 days/year). The program cost $189,000/yr and an estimated total benefit of $384,995 (95% CI: $60,416; $687,479) and an annual net benefit of $195,873 (95% CI: -$128,706; $498,357). While this cost-benefit analysis is limited by a lack of data on total healthcare utilization, the use of telehealth-exclusive SBHCs can improve student health and attendance while delivering cost savings to society.

Examining intentions to take iron supplements to inform a behavioral intervention: The Reduction in Anemia through Normative Innovations (RANI) project.

BACKGROUND: More than half of women of reproductive age in India have anemia. Over the last decade, India has made some progress towards reducing anemia in pregnant women, but non-pregnant women, who make up the largest sub group of people with anemia, are largely disregarded. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this paper is to examine intentions to take iron supplements and factors associated with intentions to inform a social norms-based behavioral intervention to increase uptake of iron supplements and reduce anemia in Odisha, India. METHODS: We collected data from 3,914 randomly sampled non-pregnant women of reproductive age in 81 villages. We conducted a survey and took hemocue (anemia level) readings from each participant. We analyzed data using linear regression models beginning with demographics and social norms and adding other factors such as self-efficacy to take iron supplements, anemia risk perception, and knowledge about anemia in a subsequent model. RESULTS: 63% of women in our sample were anemic but less than 5% knew they were anemic. Despite national guidelines that all women of reproductive age should take weekly iron supplements to prevent anemia, less than 3% of women in our sample were currently taking them. While actual use was low, intentions were rather high. On a five point Likert scale where higher numbers meant more intentions to take supplements, average intentions were above the midpoint (M = 3.48, SD = 1.27) and intentions and iron supplement use were significantly correlated (r = .10, p < .001). Both injunctive norms and collective norms were associated with intentions to take iron supplements but descriptive norms were not. Other significant factors included age, breastfeeding, knowledge, self-efficacy, and outcome expectations. The final model accounted for 74% of the variance in iron supplement intentions. CONCLUSIONS: In this context, where the actual behavior is low but intentions to enact the behavior are high, starting an intervention with injunctive norms messaging (expectations around the behavior) and self-efficacy to enact the behavior is the step we recommend based on our results. As an intervention unfolds and iron supplement use increases, descriptive norms messaging (that people are indeed taking iron supplements) may add value.

Limiting Television to Reduce Childhood Obesity: Cost-Effectiveness of Five Population Strategies.

Objective: To quantify the potential population-wide costs, number of individuals reached, and impact on obesity of five effective interventions to reduce children's television viewing if implemented nationally. Study Design: Utilizing evidence from systematic reviews, the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study (CHOICES) microsimulation model estimated the cost, population reach, and impact on childhood obesity from 2020 to 2030 of five hypothetical policy strategies to reduce the negative impact of children's TV exposure: (1) eliminating the tax deductibility of food and beverage advertising; (2) targeting TV reduction during home visiting programs; (3) motivational interviewing to reduce home television time at Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) clinic visits; (4) adoption of a television-reduction curriculum in child care; and (5) limiting noneducational television in licensed child care settings. Results: Eliminating the tax deductibility of food advertising could reach the most children [106 million, 95% uncertainty interval (UI): 105-107 million], prevent the most cases of obesity (78,700, 95% UI: 30,200-130,000), and save more in health care costs than it costs to implement. Strategies targeting young children in child care and WIC also cost little to implement (between $0.19 and $32.73 per child reached), and, although reaching fewer children because of the restricted age range, were estimated to prevent between 25,500 (95% UI: 4600-59,300) and 35,400 (95% UI: 13,200-62,100) cases of obesity. Home visiting to reduce television viewing had high costs and a low reach. Conclusions: Interventions to reduce television exposure across a range of settings, if implemented widely, could help prevent childhood obesity in the population at relatively low cost.

Association of body mass index with health care expenditures in the United States by age and sex.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of health care costs associated with excess weight are needed to inform the development of cost-effective obesity prevention efforts. However, commonly used cost estimates are not sensitive to changes in weight across the entire body mass index (BMI) distribution as they are often based on discrete BMI categories. METHODS: We estimated continuous BMI-related health care expenditures using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) 2011-2016 for 175,726 respondents. We adjusted BMI for self-report bias using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011-2016, and controlled for potential confounding between BMI and medical expenditures using a two-part model. Costs are reported in $US 2019. RESULTS: We found a J-shaped curve of medical expenditures by BMI, with higher costs for females and the lowest expenditures occurring at a BMI of 20.5 for adult females and 23.5 for adult males. Over 30 units of BMI, each one-unit BMI increase was associated with an additional cost of $253 (95% CI $167-$347) per person. Among adults, obesity was associated with $1,861 (95% CI $1,656-$2,053) excess annual medical costs per person, accounting for $172.74 billion (95% CI $153.70-$190.61) of annual expenditures. Severe obesity was associated with excess costs of $3,097 (95% CI $2,777-$3,413) per adult. Among children, obesity was associated with $116 (95% CI $14-$201) excess costs per person and $1.32 billion (95% CI $0.16-$2.29) of medical spending, with severe obesity associated with $310 (95% CI $124-$474) excess costs per child. CONCLUSIONS: Higher health care costs are associated with excess body weight across a broad range of ages and BMI levels, and are especially high for people with severe obesity. These findings highlight the importance of promoting a healthy weight for the entire population while also targeting efforts to prevent extreme weight gain over the life course.

Universal Free Meals Associated with Lower Meal Costs While Maintaining Nutritional Quality.

The Community Eligibility Provision (CEP) of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act of 2010 allows the provision of universal free meals (UFMs) in high-poverty school areas. Participation in UFM programs, including through CEP, could reduce meal costs due to economies of scale and a lower administrative burden. We analyzed the School Nutrition and Meal Cost Study (SNMCS) data from 508 UFM-eligible schools (103 UFMs) to evaluate whether meal costs varied by UFM status. We used school-level data to address the non-random selection to UFMs with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). We estimated a generalized linear model with a log link and gamma distribution to predict meal costs by UFM status and school size. Full costs among medium and large schools were marginally lower in UFM schools for lunch (-$0.673; 95% CI: -1.395, 0.0499; p = 0.068) and significantly lower for breakfast (-$0.575; 95% CI: -1.077, -0.074; p = 0.025). UFM was not associated with meal costs among smaller schools. Healthy Eating Index scores did not vary significantly by UFMs, suggesting that lower costs could be achieved without an adverse effect on nutritional quality. This analysis is limited by the lack of identified student percentage (ISP) data needed to definitively identify CEP eligibility, although results were robust to sensitivity analyses addressing the lack of ISP data. The potential policy impact of these findings emphasizes the need for future studies that assess ISP and cost with more recent data and longitudinal designs.

Applied Methods for Estimating Transition Probabilities from Electronic Health Record Data.

BACKGROUND: Electronic health record (EHR) data contain longitudinal patient information and standardized diagnostic codes. EHR data may be useful for estimating transition probabilities for state-transition models, but no guidelines exist on appropriate methods. We applied 3 potential methods to estimate transition probabilities from EHR data, using pediatric eating disorders (EDs) as a case study. METHODS: We obtained EHR data from PEDsnet, which includes 8 US children's hospitals. Data included inpatient, outpatient, and emergency department visits for all patients with an ED. We mapped diagnoses to 3 ED health states: anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, and other specified feeding or eating disorder. We estimated 1-y transition probabilities for males and females using 3 approaches: simple first-last proportions, a multistate Markov (MSM) model, and independent survival models. RESULTS: Transition probability estimates varied widely between approaches. The first-last proportion approach estimated higher probabilities of remaining in the same health state, while the MSM and independent survival approaches estimated higher probabilities of transitioning to a different health state. All estimates differed substantially from published literature. LIMITATIONS: As a source of health state information, EHR data are incomplete and sometimes inaccurate. EHR data were especially challenging for EDs, limiting the estimation and interpretation of transition probabilities. CONCLUSIONS: The 3 approaches produced very different transition probability estimates. Estimates varied considerably from published literature and were rescaled and calibrated for use in a microsimulation model. Estimation of transition probabilities from EHR data may be more promising for diseases that are well documented in the EHR. Furthermore, clinicians and health systems should work to improve documentation of ED in the EHR. Further research is needed on methods for using EHR data to inform transition probabilities.

Smoking and cessation-related attitudes among men who have sex with men in the country of Georgia.

Among men who have sex with men (MSM) in low- or middle-income countries, smoking and related factors have been understudied. We examined correlates of smoking status, level, and importance and confidence regarding quitting among 608 MSM in the country of Georgia recruited in June-September, 2016 (493 without HIV via peer referral in 3 Georgian cities; 115 with HIV via the National AIDS Center). Median age was 26 years, 78.6% reported current (past 30-day) alcohol use, and 22.4% reported past-year illicit drug use. Overall, 73.8% reported current smoking; of these, 87.1% smoked daily, mean cigarettes per day (cpd) was 19.8, 64.6% smoked ≤30 min of waking, and mean quitting importance and confidence were 6.8 and 6.4 (0 = not at all to 10 = extremely), respectively. Multivariable analyses indicated that current smoking correlated with past-month alcohol and past-year illicit drug use (p's < .001). Among smokers, cpd correlated with being older and smoking within 30 min of waking; greater quitting importance (≥7) correlated with higher education and no illicit substance use; and greater quitting confidence (≥7) was associated with fewer cpd, smoking ≤30 min of waking, and regional versus capital city residence. Given these findings, addressing tobacco and other substance use among MSM in Georgia is critical.

Moving beyond individual barriers and identifying multi-level strategies to reduce anemia in Odisha India.

BACKGROUND: To reduce the prevalence of anemia, the Indian government recommends daily iron and folic acid supplements (iron supplements) for pregnant women and weekly iron supplements for adolescents and all women of reproductive age. The government has distributed free iron supplements to adolescents and pregnant women for over four decades. However, initial uptake and adherence remain inadequate and non-pregnant women of reproductive age are largely ignored. The aim of this study is to examine the multilevel barriers to iron supplement use and to subsequently identify promising areas to intervene. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study in the state of Odisha, India. Data collection included key informant interviews, focus group discussions with women, husbands, and mothers-in-law, and direct observations in health centers, pharmacies and village health and nutrition days. RESULTS: We found that at the individual level, participants knew that iron supplements prevent anemia but underestimated anemia prevalence and risk in their community. Participants also believed that taking too many iron supplements during pregnancy would "make your baby big" causing a painful birth and a costly cesarean section. At the interpersonal level, mothers-in-law were not supportive of their daughters-in-law taking regular iron supplements during pregnancy but husbands were more supportive. At the community level, participants reported that only pregnant women and adolescents are taking iron supplements, ignoring non-pregnant women altogether. Unequal gender norms are also an upstream barrier for non-pregnant women to prioritize their health to obtain iron supplements. At the policy level, frontline health workers distribute iron supplements to pregnant women only and do not follow up on adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions should address multiple barriers to iron supplement use along the socio-ecological model. They should also be tailored to a woman's reproductive life course stage: adolescents, pregnancy, and non-pregnant women of reproductive age because social norms and available services differ between the subpopulations.

Evaluation of a pragmatic trial of a collaborative school-based obesity prevention intervention in a low-income urban district.

Broader adoption of effective school-based obesity prevention interventions is critical to the success of ongoing efforts to address the childhood obesity epidemic. School-level barriers to adopting evidence-based interventions may be overcome by empowering school-level leaders to select appropriate intervention components. We used a quasi-experimental pragmatic trial design to evaluate a tailored obesity prevention intervention in 9 schools in a mid-sized urban school district in upstate New York from fall 2013 to spring 2016. We analyzed repeated height and weight measurements from an existing district screening system on 5882 students from intervention and control schools matched using propensity score methods. We assessed diet and physical activity changes in intervention schools using surveys and direct observation. The intervention led to a change of -0.27 (p = 0.026, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): -0.51, -0.03) and -0.28 (p = 0.031, 95% CI: -0.54, -0.03) BMI units in spring 2014 and fall 2014, respectively. There were no significant differences between intervention and control from spring 2015 to spring 2016. Despite the lack of sustained effects on BMI, we demonstrated the potential of supporting school leaders in a low-income district to implement supportive policy and practice changes and of using an existing BMI screening system to reduce the burden of health promotion evaluation.

Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity.

BACKGROUND: Although the national obesity epidemic has been well documented, less is known about obesity at the U.S. state level. Current estimates are based on body measures reported by persons themselves that underestimate the prevalence of obesity, especially severe obesity. METHODS: We developed methods to correct for self-reporting bias and to estimate state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI). BMI data reported by 6,264,226 adults (18 years of age or older) who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias with the use of measured data from 57,131 adults who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We fitted multinomial regressions for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI [the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters], <25), overweight (25 to <30), moderate obesity (30 to <35), and severe obesity (≥35). We evaluated the accuracy of our approach using data from 1990 through 2010 to predict 2016 outcomes. RESULTS: The findings from our approach suggest with high predictive accuracy that by 2030 nearly 1 in 2 adults will have obesity (48.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 47.7 to 50.1), and the prevalence will be higher than 50% in 29 states and not below 35% in any state. Nearly 1 in 4 adults is projected to have severe obesity by 2030 (24.2%; 95% CI, 22.9 to 25.5), and the prevalence will be higher than 25% in 25 states. We predict that, nationally, severe obesity is likely to become the most common BMI category among women (27.6%; 95% CI, 26.1 to 29.2), non-Hispanic black adults (31.7%; 95% CI, 29.9 to 33.4), and low-income adults (31.7%; 95% CI, 30.2 to 33.2). CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis indicates that the prevalence of adult obesity and severe obesity will continue to increase nationwide, with large disparities across states and demographic subgroups. (Funded by the JPB Foundation.).

Cost-Effectiveness Of The Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Excise Tax In Mexico.

An excise tax of 1 peso per liter on sugar-sweetened beverages was implemented in Mexico in 2014. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of this tax and an alternative tax scenario of 2 pesos per liter. We developed a cohort simulation model calibrated for Mexico to project the impact of the tax over ten years. The current tax is projected to prevent 239,900 cases of obesity, 39 percent of which would be among children. It could also prevent 61,340 cases of diabetes, lead to gains of 55,300 quality-adjusted life-years, and avert 5,840 disability-adjusted life-years. The tax is estimated to save $3.98 per dollar spent on its implementation. Doubling the tax to 2 pesos per liter would nearly double the cost savings and health impact. Countries with comparable conditions could benefit from implementing a similar tax.

Cost-Effectiveness of Water Promotion Strategies in Schools for Preventing Childhood Obesity and Increasing Water Intake.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness and impact on childhood obesity of installation of chilled water dispensers ("water jets") on school lunch lines and to compare water jets' cost, reach, and impact on water consumption with three additional strategies. METHODS: The Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study(CHOICES) microsimulation model estimated the cost-effectiveness of water jets on US childhood obesity cases prevented in 2025. Also estimated were the cost, number of children reached, and impact on water consumption of the installation of water jets and three other strategies. RESULTS: Installing water jets on school lunch lines was projected to reach 29.6 million children (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 29.4 million-29.8 million), cost $4.25 (95% UI: $2.74-$5.69) per child, prevent 179,550 cases of childhood obesity in 2025 (95% UI: 101,970-257,870), and save $0.31 in health care costs per dollar invested (95% UI: $0.15-$0.55). In the secondary analysis, installing cup dispensers next to existing water fountains was the least costly but also had the lowest population reach. CONCLUSIONS: Installating water jet dispensers on school lunch lines could also save almost half of the dollars needed for implementation via a reduction in obesity-related health care costs. School-based interventions to promote drinking water may be relatively inexpensive strategies for improving child health.